Hard times hit United after Open Cup setback

Soccer Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United hit rock bottom Wednesday. The most storied franchise in Major League Soccer history was already on the verge of their worst season in history, and it got even worse with their U.S. Open Cup exit.

That D.C. United lost again was not a surprise - that's what they've done this year. How United lost, interim manager Ben Olsen said after a 2-1, extra- time loss to the Columbus Crew was "cruel."

United took a one-goal lead into the final minutes of the Open Cup semifinals, holding onto an early lead despite an ejection of goal scorer Pablo Hernandez, when Marc Burch scored into his own net with one minute left in regulation.

Columbus added a second goal eight minutes into extra time, and United dropped out of the competition just seconds short of another finals appearance. It was a tough loss, would have been for any team, but even more so for this one.

United has won four games this year in MLS through 22 matches. Yes, four. That equals the number of championships the team has won in league's first 14 years in existence.

"This season has been abysmal," United's Santino Quaranta said, "and [the Open Cup] was the only thing we had going for us."

Until the last minute Wednesday night.

Burch's own goal erased a chance for D.C. to return to the U.S. Open Cup final for the third straight year. The last two years, the once-proud club failed to make the MLS playoffs, but thrived in the Open Cup tournament.

United won the U.S. Open Cup two seasons ago, and lost in the final to Seattle Sounders FC last year. Now, United will watch Seattle defend its title against Columbus next month.

D.C. will have to turn its focus solely to MLS, where over the last eight games of the season, it will try to avoid accumulating a number of records no team wants.

United, 4-14-3, could overtake the 2001 Tampa Bay Mutiny for the worst year in league history if it loses its last eight games. Tampa Bay went 4-23-3 and had a .185 winning percentage. D.C. could finish with a .183 winning percentage.

United has been shut out 14 times in league play, just one off the record. With 15 goals so far in the league - or only two more than MLS scoring leader Edson Buddle of the Los Angeles Galaxy - D.C. needs 10 goals to avoid the lowest sum ever in a single-season.

"We'll keep pushing, somehow regroup," Olsen said Wednesday, "then start again on the weekend."

United returns to MLS action Saturday against Columbus, then visits Toronto FC and Los Angeles. Houston, Colorado, San Jose, Chicago and another game against Toronto wraps up the schedule.

Olsen, who helped United to its MLS Cup titles in 1998 and 2004, can only hope to start building the foundation for the team's next boss. Olsen replaced Curt Onalfo earlier this season, but isn't considered a candidate for the full-time job.

D.C.'s fall, which has happened over the last few seasons, can be traced to a number of bad roster decisions, including trading ex-MLS Defender of the Year Bobby Boswell to Houston in 2007.

Boswell was shipped out for backup goalie Zach Wells (who retired in 2009 when he was just 29), and then the signings of five South Americans last offseason, including Marcelo Gallardo, failed to produce much for the club. None of those players are still in D.C.

Before this season, United traded Brazilian midfielder Fred, a first-round pick and allocation money to the Philadelphia Union to acquire the right to ex-D.C. goalie Troy Perkins, who returned to the league following a stint in Europe.

Perkins has allowed nearly two goals a game in 15 starts and lost his starting spot to rookie Bill Hamid.

After reaching the MLS Cup in the first four years the league existed and with wins in three of those finals, United hit a tough stretch from 2000-2002. D.C. returned to the playoffs for the following five seasons, meaning there is some hope the current three-year slide is just another rough patch.

However, United's attendance has slipped below 15,000 for the first time ever. It now seems that the word "TRADITION" - proudly displayed below the collar on the back of their jerseys - is all the club has right now.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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